Model for the performance of photovoltaic systems

Chiemeka Onyema

Abstract
In this article, the future in photovoltaic energy productivity (PVE) is evaluated using climate variables simulated aerosol clearness index and solar irradiance, it is a model for the performance of photovoltaic systems. The analysis indicates that the aerosol emission reductions in the near future result in an increase in global warming with a significant response of the solar surface radiation and associated PVE productivity. Changes in radiation surface and productivity of solar PVE are related to overall reduction in aerosol effects on the circulation and large scale associated with cloud coverage pattern, rather than local atmospheric effects on optical properties. PVE evaluation is then discussed in the context of the current situation and the PV market highlighting the effects on productivity induced by industrial and public policies, while technological development are comparable to the effects related to the weather. The results presented encourage the improvement and further use of climate models in the assessment of future availability for renewable energy.

Keywords
Climate change; Emissions; Energy systems vulnerability; Impacts and risks; Renewable energy.

Resumo
Modelo para o desempenho de sistemas fotovoltaicos. Neste artigo, o futuro da produtividade de energia fotovoltaica (PVE) é avaliado usando variáveis climáticas, índice de nitidez de aerossol e irradiância solar, em um modelo para o desempenho de sistemas fotovoltaicos. A análise indica que as reduções de emissões de aerossóis no futuro próximo resultam em um aumento no aquecimento global com uma resposta significativa da radiação da superfície solar e da produtividade PVE associada. Mudanças na superfície de radiação e na produtividade do PVE solar estão relacionadas à redução geral dos efeitos de aerossóis na circulação e em grande escala associados ao padrão de cobertura de nuvens, ao invés de efeitos atmosféricos locais nas propriedades ópticas. A avaliação do PVE é então discutida no contexto da situação atual e do mercado de PV destacando os efeitos sobre a produtividade induzidos pelas políticas públicas e industriais, enquanto o desenvolvimento tecnológico é comparável aos efeitos relacionados ao clima. Os resultados apresentados incentivam a melhoria e o uso futuro de modelos climáticos na avaliação da disponibilidade futura de energia renovável.

Palavras-chave
Mudanças climáticas; Emissões; Vulnerabilidade dos sistemas energéticos; Impactos e riscos; Energia renovável.

DOI
10.21438/rbgas.051101

Texto completo
PDF

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