Distribuição geográfica atual e futura de Hancornia speciosa Gomes no Brasil: perspectivas na conservação. Qual o futuro da mangaba?

Gardjany da Costa Moreira , Juan Morysson Viana Marciano e Vanessa Dayane da Costa Barbosa

Resumo
Este trabalho objetiva obter dados de ocorrência de Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) e através deles avaliar o efeito das mudanças climáticas em cenários contrastantes futuros sobre a distribuição e diversidade dessa espécie. Os dados usados sobre a ocorrência da distribuição da mangaba foram obtidos nos bancos de dados (GBIF e SpeciesLink). Foram utilizados seis algoritmos de modelagem de distribuição potencial de espécies, considerando cenários climáticos futuros otimistas e pessimistas, fornecidos pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC). Os resultados apontam que as mudanças climáticas terão um impacto negativo na distribuição de Hancornia speciosa Gomes e que a espécie ficará restrita a pequenas áreas de Mata Atlântica.

Palavras-chave
Mudanças climáticas; Mangaba; IPCC.

Abstract
The current and future geographical distribution of Hancornia speciosa Gomes in Brazil: Perspectives on conservation. What is the future of mangaba? This work aims to obtain data on the occurrence of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) and through them to evaluate the effect of climate change in contrasting future scenarios on the distribution and diversity of this species. The data used on the occurrence of mangaba distribution were obtained from databases (GBIF and speciesLink). Six potential species distribution modeling algorithms were used, considering optimistic and pessimistic future climate scenarios, provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that climate change will have a negative impact on the distribution of Hancornia speciosa Gomes, and that the species will be restricted to small areas of the Atlantic Forest.

Keywords
Climate changes; Mangaba; IPCC.

DOI
10.21438/rbgas(2023)102522

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